HORSEMEN DIGEST · MARKET-RISK NOTES

Ride the bubble.
Respect the horses.

A weekly newsletter and public charts for the AI IPO procession: stay long until the final horseman arrives, watch OpenAI as the last boss, and keep the read sober.

GET THE DIGEST →READ THE THESIS →HORSEMEN INDEX →
DIGEST WEEKLY✦OPENAI = FINAL BOSS✦HECTOCORN PARADE✦CREDIBILITY FIRST✦NO HEROICS✦

NOW ENTERING THE VALLEY

The hectocorn
parade.

One IPO can be a company. A whole procession is a market regime. Watch the sequence, the demand, and what happens after the confetti cannon fires.

PRIVATE-MARKET OPENING CREDITS ↓
SX
PUBLIC · JUN 12

SPACEX

THE DRESS REHEARSAL

Post-IPO gravity test
AN
IPO ASK ~$2T · PRIVATE $965B

ANTHROPIC

THE PRECURSOR

Series H private mark ≠ IPO ask
OI
PRIVATE $852B · IPO NOT 2026

OPENAI

THE FINAL BOSS

Altman: 2026 listing ill-advised
ST
PRIVATE

STRIPE

THE PAYMENTS WHALE

Liquidity appetite
DB
PRIVATE

DATABRICKS

THE DATA MOUNTAIN

Reportedly staying private
AD
PRIVATE

ANDURIL

THE DEFENSE DARLING

Defense-tech demand
CV
PRIVATE

CANVA

THE DESIGN KRAKEN

Consumer-tech appetite
DS
PRIVATE

DISCORD

THE CHAT WILDCARD

Retail-recognition test
SX
PUBLIC · JUN 12

SPACEX

THE DRESS REHEARSAL

Post-IPO gravity test
AN
IPO ASK ~$2T · PRIVATE $965B

ANTHROPIC

THE PRECURSOR

Series H private mark ≠ IPO ask
OI
PRIVATE $852B · IPO NOT 2026

OPENAI

THE FINAL BOSS

Altman: 2026 listing ill-advised
ST
PRIVATE

STRIPE

THE PAYMENTS WHALE

Liquidity appetite
DB
PRIVATE

DATABRICKS

THE DATA MOUNTAIN

Reportedly staying private
AD
PRIVATE

ANDURIL

THE DEFENSE DARLING

Defense-tech demand
CV
PRIVATE

CANVA

THE DESIGN KRAKEN

Consumer-tech appetite
DS
PRIVATE

DISCORD

THE CHAT WILDCARD

Retail-recognition test
SPACE & AIFINTECHDATADEFENSECONSUMER

KILOCORN RACE · SOURCED MARKS

Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX valuations

Dated marks from ChatGPT launch forward. Private primary, secondary/tender, reported marks, IPO asks, the SpaceX IPO print, and monthly public market caps are labeled separately so a $965B private round is never confused with a ~$2T IPO ask—or a $1.77T IPO with a later public close.

SPACEX · LATEST PUBLIC$2.0TPUBLIC MONTHLY · Latest public market cap (~$2.05T)
ANTHROPIC · LATEST$2TIPO ASK · Reported IPO ask ~$2T (Nvidia anchor talks)
OPENAI · LATEST PRIVATE$852BPRIVATE PRIMARY · IPO still undated / 2026 ill-advised per Altman
Anthropic vs OpenAI vs SpaceX valuation race$50B$250B$500B$1T$1.5T$2T$2.5TChatGPT launchSpaceX · $137B · Primary raise $750M at $137B · CNBCOpenAI · $29B · Reported Microsoft round talks (~$29B) · ReutersSpaceX · $180B · Insider tender (~$180B) · CNBCAnthropic · $18.4B · Series D Menlo SPV (~$18.4B) · ForbesOpenAI · $86B · Employee tender (~$86B) · BloombergSpaceX · $210B · Insider tender (~$210B) · Los Angeles TimesOpenAI · $157B · Primary raise $6.6B at $157B · OpenAISpaceX · $350B · Insider tender (~$350B) · CNBCAnthropic · $61.5B · Series E $3.5B at $61.5B · AnthropicOpenAI · $300B · SoftBank-led primary $40B at $300B · OpenAISpaceX · $400B · Reported insider sale (~$400B) · BloombergAnthropic · $183B · Series F $13B at $183B · AnthropicOpenAI · $500B · Employee secondary sale (~$500B) · ReutersSpaceX · $800B · CFO letter tender (~$800B) · ReutersAnthropic · $380B · Series G $30B at $380B · AnthropicOpenAI · $852B · Closed $122B round at $852B post-money · OpenAIAnthropic · $965B · Series H private mark $965B · AnthropicSpaceX · $1.8T · IPO at $135 · ~$1.77T / ~$85.7B raise · ReutersSpaceX · $2.3T · Month-end public market cap (~$2.25T) · StockAnalysis / S&P GlobalAnthropic · $1.2T · Secondary-market print ~$1.2T · Business InsiderSpaceX · $1.4T · Month-end public market cap (~$1.43T) · StockAnalysis / S&P GlobalSpaceX · $1.9T · Month-end public market cap (~$1.95T) · StockAnalysis / S&P GlobalAnthropic · $2T · Reported IPO ask ~$2T (Nvidia anchor talks) · ReutersSpaceX · $2.0T · Latest public market cap (~$2.05T) · StockAnalysis / S&P GlobalJan ’23Jan ’24Jan ’25Jan ’26Sep ’26

ChatGPT launch (Nov 30, 2022). Valuation series begins with the first sourced post-launch marks. SpaceX monthly public marks start after the June 12, 2026 IPO.

◆ Private primary○ Secondary / tender△ IPO ask★ Public / IPO◇ Public monthly□ Reported

SOURCE ROSTER · EVERY POINT LINKED

Hover the chart or read the table · newest first · on small screens, tap + for kind, note, and source. Digests should append to app/valuation-race/data.ts.

  • ANTHROPIC$2T
    IPO ASKReported IPO ask ~$2T (Nvidia anchor talks) — Sources say Anthropic seeks up to ~$100B raise at around $2T. Plans can change—this is an IPO ask, not a closed private mark.Reuters ↗
  • SPACEX$2.0T
    PUBLIC MONTHLYLatest public market cap (~$2.05T) — Sep 11, 2026 close — latest available monthly/latest print, not a September month-end. Digests should replace this row when September closes.StockAnalysis / S&P Global ↗
  • SPACEX$1.9T
    PUBLIC MONTHLYMonth-end public market cap (~$1.95T) — August close after the early-August rebound from the ~$1.43T low.StockAnalysis / S&P Global ↗
  • SPACEX$1.4T
    PUBLIC MONTHLYMonth-end public market cap (~$1.43T) — July close after the post-debut retracement. Public market cap, not a private mark.StockAnalysis / S&P Global ↗
  • ANTHROPIC$1.2T
    SECONDARY / TENDERSecondary-market print ~$1.2T — Illiquid secondary print (Caplight/brokers)—not a new primary round. Source quality below Reuters/Bloomberg/company.Business Insider ↗
  • SPACEX$2.3T
    PUBLIC MONTHLYMonth-end public market cap (~$2.25T) — June close. Public market cap (price × shares), not an IPO print. S&P Global via StockAnalysis.StockAnalysis / S&P Global ↗
  • SPACEX$1.8T
    PUBLIC / IPOIPO at $135 · ~$1.77T / ~$85.7B raise — Priced June 11, traded June 12 (SPCX). Reuters: $75B primary / $1.77T offering valuation. Site thesis + SpaceX IR: ~$85.7B after full greenshoe. First-day close was higher (~$2.1T per CNBC)—this point is the IPO print, not the first trade.Reuters ↗
  • ANTHROPIC$965B
    PRIVATE PRIMARYSeries H private mark $965B — Last company-disclosed private primary mark before IPO-talk headlines.Anthropic ↗
  • OPENAI$852B
    PRIVATE PRIMARYClosed $122B round at $852B post-money — Latest company-disclosed private mark. IPO trading date still unconfirmed; Altman (Sep 2026) called a 2026 listing ill-advised.OpenAI ↗
  • ANTHROPIC$380B
    PRIVATE PRIMARYSeries G $30B at $380BAnthropic ↗
  • SPACEX$800B
    SECONDARY / TENDERCFO letter tender (~$800B) — CFO Bret Johnsen letter (Dec 12): up to $2.56B bought at $421/share; preparing for a possible 2026 IPO.Reuters ↗
  • OPENAI$500B
    SECONDARY / TENDEREmployee secondary sale (~$500B)Reuters ↗
  • ANTHROPIC$183B
    PRIVATE PRIMARYSeries F $13B at $183BAnthropic ↗
  • SPACEX$400B
    REPORTED MARKReported insider sale (~$400B) — Bloomberg: planned insider sale at $212/share. Reuters (Jul 22) cited the same ~$400B tender paperwork. Treat as a reported mark, not a company blog.Bloomberg ↗
  • OPENAI$300B
    PRIVATE PRIMARYSoftBank-led primary $40B at $300BOpenAI ↗
  • ANTHROPIC$61.5B
    PRIVATE PRIMARYSeries E $3.5B at $61.5BAnthropic ↗
  • SPACEX$350B
    SECONDARY / TENDERInsider tender (~$350B) — Secondary: $1.25B insider sale at $185/share; SpaceX itself buying up to $500M. Not a primary raise.CNBC ↗
  • OPENAI$157B
    PRIVATE PRIMARYPrimary raise $6.6B at $157BOpenAI ↗
  • SPACEX$210B
    SECONDARY / TENDERInsider tender (~$210B) — Bloomberg-bylined LAT: $112/share tender, up from the December $180B mark.Los Angeles Times ↗
  • OPENAI$86B
    SECONDARY / TENDEREmployee tender (~$86B)Bloomberg ↗
  • ANTHROPIC$18.4B
    REPORTED MARKSeries D Menlo SPV (~$18.4B) — Contemporaneous reporting on the Menlo-led $750M raise; not an Anthropic blog post.Forbes ↗
  • SPACEX$180B
    SECONDARY / TENDERInsider tender (~$180B) — Secondary at $97/share; CNBC confirmed. Prior July 2023 secondary was ~$150B at $81/share (same piece).CNBC ↗
  • OPENAI$29B
    REPORTED MARKReported Microsoft round talks (~$29B) — Reuters citing Semafor on talks; Microsoft later confirmed a multibillion partnership without publishing the $29B figure itself.Reuters ↗
  • SPACEX$137B
    PRIVATE PRIMARYPrimary raise $750M at $137B — CNBC citing investor correspondence; a16z expected to lead. First sourced post–ChatGPT-launch mark.CNBC ↗

01 · THE DASHBOARD

The four horsemen

Editorial status cards—not device-local toggles. Dial scores from week ending 2026-09-12. For the live weekly series, see the Horsemen Index or the ledger.

Framing inspired by Owen A. Lamont's Acadian Owenomics Four Horsemen (overvaluation, bubble beliefs, issuance, inflows)—see the thesis credit, original checklist, and IPOs of doom.

I75/100♞

Overvaluation

Are public prices unreasonable versus history—CAPE and forward P/E first?

CAPE Multpl ~40.9; Mag7 concentration is a modifier, not the dial. Anthropic’s rumored ~$2T ask lives on the valuation-race chart—not public I. Reuters: IPO could slip past November midterms (mid-October was the earlier soft window).

  • CAPE & forward P/E
  • Excess CAPE yield (soft)
  • Mag7 as modifier
RIDINGINDEX →
II58/100◉

Bubble beliefs

Does everyone know it’s expensive—and buy because it may get pricier?

Altman called a 2026 OpenAI IPO “ill-advised” and Amodei talks pacing—greater-fool heat cools when the final boss steps off the calendar. Narrative FOMO stays capped without survey confirmation.

  • Yale / valuation confidence
  • Too high but going higher
  • Narrative (capped)
STIRRINGINDEX →
III58/100▤

Issuance

Is market-wide net issuance rising—or are megas masking buyback-dominated supply?

Anthropic’s IPO window may be slipping past the midterms (Reuters), and Dangote keeps the mega secondary track warm—but the main III dial watches trailing ~12m net issuance vs market cap—not a single S-1.

  • Net issuance / mkt cap
  • Megas secondary track
  • III′ without megas
STIRRINGINDEX →
IV46/100⇡

Inflows

Are new participants stampeding in—retail, foreign, brokerage proxies?

No clear new-entrant stampede: brokerage/foreign proxies stay muted. Lipper’s fourth-week U.S. equity outflow streak (~−$31.44B latest) is digest color—not the IV spine.

  • New entrants / brokerage
  • Foreign net purchases
  • Lipper (color only)
SLEEPINGINDEX →

02 · IPO WATCH

Meet the final bosses.

Rumors are not dates. The clock only starts when a credible trading date appears.

Working tripwire narrative lives in the thesis. For weekly Horsemen reads, get the digest.

03 · CONTEXT TIMELINE

Paint the dates.

Public markers (Fed calendar, Gerstner Flight Path / AI-lab hurdles), estimated AI lab revenue-print windows, plus Jonathan's IPO date estimates. Labels marked DONE, EXPECTED (market-implied as of a dated snapshot — not our prediction), ESTIMATE ONLY (working guesses, not scheduled trading dates or filings), or RUMOR (reported talk—not a trading date). A dated backdrop for the procession and the political calendar, not a personal exit plan.

CONTEXT SPAN BAND FLIGHT PATH FAN DONE EXPECTED ESTIMATE RUMORContext only / not a recommendation. Links open sources in a new tab.
Gerstner Flight Path fan · NDX +5%?–+25%?Sep 1, 2026 → Dec 31, 2026
Presidential cycle · year-3 window (consideration)Oct 1, 2026 → Apr 30, 2027
SpaceXJun 12, 2026
DONE · FedSep 16, 2026
EST · Lab ARROct 14, 2026
EXPECTED · FOMCOct 28, 2026
MidtermsNov 3, 2026
RUMOR · OpenAI roundNov 15, 2026
EST · Lab ARRNov 17, 2026
EST · Anthropic IPONov 18, 2026
EXPECTED · FOMC+SEPDec 9, 2026
EST · Lab ARRDec 15, 2026
YE hurdleDec 31, 2026
EST · Lab YEJan 15, 2027
EXPECTED · FOMCJan 27, 2027
EST · OpenAI IPOApr 15, 2027

CONTEXT MARKERS

Consideration, not orders

  • Sep 1, 2026 → Dec 31, 2026
    Gerstner Flight Path fan · NDX +5%?–+25%?Credit: Brad Gerstner / Altimeter on All-In “Flight Path: Balance of 2026,” episode Sep 17 2026. Takeoff ~$8B/mo AI lab offtake; stall ~$4B/mo. Collective path ~$100B → need ≥~$180B YE 2026. Fan: NDX vs fwd 12m EPS, Sep–Dec +5%? to +25%?. Swing boxes: Monthly AI lab revenues · Oil · Rates · Election · Regulation · Anthropic IPO. Context band only — not a rebuilt NDX chart.
  • Oct 1, 2026 → Apr 30, 2027
    Presidential cycle · year-3 window (consideration) ↗Puru Saxena: historically strong 7-month stretch into year 3 of the US presidential cycle. Context—not an order.Saxena primary ↗Related note ↗
  • Jun 12, 2026
    SpaceX public (dress rehearsal)Listed on the Titans board as PUBLIC · JUN 12 — market-regime signal, not a tripwire.
  • Sep 16, 2026
    DONE · Fed +25bp to 3.75%–4.00%DONE · Sep 16 2026: FOMC hiked +25bp to 3.75%–4.00%. Unanimous; first hike since 2023.
  • Oct 14, 2026
    EST · AI lab ARR print windowESTIMATE ONLY — Sep-month Anthropic/OpenAI ARR print window (mid-month leak pattern; Anthropic July ARR ~Aug 17). Working guess for when figures often surface — not scheduled earnings.
  • Oct 28, 2026
    EXPECTED · FOMCFOMC decision (mtg Oct 27–28). EXPECTED · as of Sep 17 2026: ~55–60% hold / ~40–45% +25bp (CME FedWatch / Polymarket ballpark). Not our prediction.EXPECTED · as of Sep 17, 2026 (CME FedWatch / Polymarket ballpark): ~57% hold / ~43% +25bp. Not our prediction — market-implied ballpark; refresh after each print.
  • Nov 3, 2026
    US midtermsPolitical calendar marker for situational awareness.
  • Nov 15, 2026
    RUMOR · OpenAI ≥$1.2T private round (est. raise) ↗RUMOR · estimated late-2026 private raise window (working midpoint Nov 15 2026) — not a trading date. News reported: WSJ ~Sep 15 2026 on private capital talk ≥$1.2T, chatter up to ~$1.5T. Private round, not a listing; may push IPO later.
  • Nov 17, 2026
    EST · AI lab ARR print windowESTIMATE ONLY — Oct-month Anthropic/OpenAI ARR print window. Mid-month leak pattern working guess — not scheduled earnings.
  • Nov 18, 2026
    EST · Anthropic IPO (post-midterms / slipping)ESTIMATE ONLY — Jonathan's post-midterms working guess (mid/late Nov). Reuters: IPO could slip past November midterms; mid-October marketing was the earlier soft window. Plans can still change. Not a filing or trading date.
  • Dec 9, 2026
    EXPECTED · FOMC + SEPFOMC + SEP (mtg Dec 8–9). EXPECTED · as of Sep 17 2026: majority odds of another +25bp by/at Dec (~55–70% depending on source). Not our prediction.EXPECTED · as of Sep 17, 2026 (CME FedWatch / Polymarket ballpark): ~35% hold / ~65% +25bp. Not our prediction — market-implied ballpark; refresh after each print.
  • Dec 15, 2026
    EST · AI lab ARR print windowESTIMATE ONLY — Nov-month Anthropic/OpenAI ARR print window. Mid-month leak pattern working guess — not scheduled earnings.
  • Dec 31, 2026
    Gerstner YE hurdle · $8B/$180B checkCredit: Brad Gerstner / Altimeter on All-In “Flight Path: Balance of 2026,” episode Sep 17 2026. Takeoff ~$8B/mo AI lab offtake; stall ~$4B/mo. Collective path ~$100B → need ≥~$180B YE 2026. Year-end checkpoint for takeoff vs stall.
  • Jan 15, 2027
    EST · AI lab Dec/YE printESTIMATE ONLY — Dec/YE Anthropic/OpenAI ARR print window; ties to Gerstner $8B/mo takeoff and ≥~$180B YE 2026 collective check. Not scheduled earnings.
  • Jan 27, 2027
    EXPECTED · FOMC (TBD)FOMC (mtg Jan 26–27). Expectations TBD — refresh after Dec. EXPECTED · as of Sep 17 2026: odds not yet priced for this meeting in our data.EXPECTED · as of Sep 17, 2026 (refresh after Dec FOMC + SEP): odds TBD. Not our prediction — market-implied ballpark; refresh after each print.
  • Apr 15, 2027
    EST · OpenAI IPOESTIMATE ONLY — Jonathan's working guess 2027-04-15 (Altman ruled out 2026; private-round chatter may push listing later). Not a filing or trading date.

04 · SIGNAL DESK

Credibility beats chronology.

Primary evidence and trusted observers outrank hot takes. Freshness breaks ties; it does not run the feed.

CURATED FALLBACKSCORE = SOURCE + DIRECTNESS + RELEVANCE + FRESHNESS
01
Axios · Jul 30, 2026

AI-focused Situational Awareness sells its public-equity portfolio

Directly relevant positioning signal

9402
Associated Press · Jun 1, 2026

Anthropic moves toward Wall Street debut with confidential filing

Top-tier reporting on a concrete filing

9203
Investing.com · Jul 20, 2026

Korea’s leveraged chip trade hits the margin-call wall

High relevance; secondary analysis

79